3 Women Repatriated From Syria Face Terror Charges in Kosovo

Kosovo prosecutors have filed terrorism charges against three women repatriated from Syria for allegedly joining terror groups there.
                   
Prosecutors said Monday that the three women had left Kosovo in 2013, 2014 and 2015 to join the Islamic State group in Syria and Al-Nusra in Iraq. Spouses of two of them had died, apparently in fighting there.
                   
The three women were among 110 Kosovo citizens repatriated from Syria in April.
                   
If convicted, they could face a prison sentence of up to 15 years.
                   
Kosovo authorities say 30 of the country’s citizens are still actively supporting terror groups in Syria.

US Supreme Court Rejects Call for New Trial in ‘Serial’ Podcast Case

The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a Maryland man’s bid for a new trial based on information uncovered by the hit podcast “Serial.”

The justices did not comment in leaving in place a 4-3 ruling by Maryland’s highest court that denied a new trial to Adnan Syed, who was convicted of strangling a high school classmate he had once dated.

Syed is serving a life sentence after he was convicted in 2000 of killing 17-year-old Hae Min Lee and burying her body in a Baltimore park. Prosecutors said during his trial that Syed killed her after she broke off their relationship.

Syed’s lawyers had argued that his trial lawyer’s failure to investigate an alibi witness violated his right to competent legal representation.

“We are deeply disappointed by the Supreme Court but by no means is this the end of Adnan Syed,” defense attorney C. Justin Brown told The Associated Press. “There are other legal options and we are exploring each and every one of them.”

Millions of people learned about Syed when the hit podcast “Serial” dedicated its entire first season to the case in 2014. The show shattered podcast-streaming and downloading records, shining a spotlight that led to renewed court proceedings.

Two Maryland courts found that Syed deserved a new trial. His lawyer during his first trial, Cristina Gutierrez, failed to contact a woman who said she saw Syed at a library at the time prosecutors say he strangled his ex-girlfriend in 1999. Gutierrez has since died.

But in 2018, the Maryland Court of Appeals denied Syed a new trial, even though it agreed his trial lawyer’s work was lacking. The state high court said there was little chance the outcome would have been different had Gutierrez done what she should have.

Rabia Chaudry, an attorney and friend of Syed’s family who first brought his case to the attention of “This American Life,” which developed the podcast, said Monday that the Supreme Court’s decision “was fully expected.” She said his defense team has been preparing to file either a habeas petition in federal court or go back to the state court.

“We were just waiting. It was just a technicality. Now it’s done, so we can move forward,” she said of the high court’s move. “He is doing fine. He is hanging in there. He knows that none of us are basically giving up. He was a great legal team. He was a lot of public support and walking away is not an option.”
 

Hong Kong Pro-Democracy Forces Headed for Landslide Win

Hong Kong pro-democracy forces appear headed for a landslide victory in local elections that saw record turnout, delivering a stunning rebuke to Beijing.

Early voting results Monday showed pro-democracy candidates winning nearly every seat they contested in Hong Kong’s 18 district councils. Pro-democracy candidates led the pro-establishment camp, 278 seats to 42.

If the trend continues, it would be a major symbolic blow to pro-China forces that dominate virtually all levels of Hong Kong’s politics.

It is the latest evidence of continued public support for a five-month-old pro-democracy movement that has become increasingly aggressive.

“Hong Kongers have spoken out, loud and clear. The international community must acknowledge that, almost six months in, public opinion has NOT turned against the movement,” student activist Joshua Wong said on Twitter.

The vote will not significantly change the balance of power in Hong Kong’s quasi-democratic political system. District council members have no power to pass legislation; they deal mainly with hyperlocal issues, such as noise complaints and bus stop locations.

However, the district council vote is seen as one of the most reliable indicators of public opinion, since it is the only fully democratic election in Hong Kong.


On Edge From Violence, Hong Kong Holds Local Elections video player.
Embed

Watch related video by VOA’s William Gallo

Massive turnout

Nearly 3 million people voted in the election — a record high for Hong Kong, and more than double the turnout of the previous district council election, in 2015.

Voters formed long lines that snaked around city blocks outside polling stations across the territory, many waiting over an hour to vote.

“This amount of people I’ve never seen. There are so many people,” said Felix, who works in the real estate industry and voted in the central business district.

By nighttime, most of the long lines at voting stations had tapered off, but nearby sidewalks remained filled with candidates and their supporters who held signs and chanted slogans in an attempt to persuade passersby to cast last-minute votes.
 
“I’m tired, but I think it’s more important to fight,” said Elvis Yam, who waited in line for an hour to vote in the morning and then volunteered to hold a campaign sign for a pro-democracy candidate in the University District.

Voters queue to vote at a polling station during district council local elections on Hong Kong Island, China November 24, 2019…
Voters queue to vote at a polling station during district council local elections on Hong Kong Island, China November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

 
Mr. Ma, a voter in the South Horizons West constituency, said he sees the election as a continuation of the protest movement. “Many would like to have a change. So this election is very important,” he said.
 
Police promised a heavy security presence at voting locations. But outside many polling stations, there was no visible police presence. At others, teams of riot police waited in nearby vans. There were no reports of major clashes.

Hong Kong has seen five months of pro-democracy protests. The protests have escalated in recent weeks, with smaller groups of hard-core protesters engaging in fierce clashes with police.

The win “very clearly” shows the public is in support of the movement, says Ma Ngok, a political scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

“This will, I think, give (Hong Kong) much better support internationally, and also create much more pressure for the Hong Kong government to respond to the demands of the protest,” Ma said.

Electoral staff helps a voter at a polling station during district council local elections in Hong Kong, China November 24,…
Electoral staff helps a voter at a polling station during district council local elections in Hong Kong, Nov. 24, 2019.

Wider impact?

Even though district councils have little power, the vote could affect how the territory’s more influential Legislative Council and chief executive are selected in the future.

District councilors are able to select a small number of people to the 1,200-member election committee that chooses Hong Kong’s chief executive. They also have the ability to select or run for seats in the Legislative Council.

“That’s a big deal,” said Emily Lau, a former Legislative Council member and prominent member of the pro-democracy camp. “Because of this constitutional linkage, it makes the significance of the district council much bigger than its powers show you.”
 
Hong Kong saw a major surge in voter registration, particularly among young people. Nearly 386,000 people have registered to vote in the past year — the most since at least 2003.

Many Hong Kongers are concerned about what they see as an erosion of the “one country, two systems” policy that Beijing has used to govern Hong Kong since it was returned by Britain in 1997.

 

Diversity Marks Latest Class of US Rhodes Scholars

Minorities make up the majority of the latest group of U.S. college students to be named Rhodes Scholars, and the class includes the first transgender woman selected for the prestigious program.

The Rhodes Trust announced the 32 selections late Saturday after two days of discussions over 236 applicants from 90 different colleges and universities across the country.

Along with University of Tennessee graduate Hera Jay Brown, who is the first transgender woman in the program, this year’s class also includes two non-binary scholars.

“As our rights and experiences as women are under threat, this moment has given me pause to reflect on what an honor it is to pave this path,” Brown posted on Twitter after the announcement.

There are students from universities well known for their academics, such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard University and Duke University. The list also includes the first Rhodes Scholar from the University of Connecticut.

The 32 people chosen will start at least two years of all-expenses paid study next fall at Oxford University in England along with students from over 60 countries.

The studies undertaken by the scholars include research into the escape from danger reflex in zebrafish to better understand how the human brain deals with stress and how to make computer vision more humanlike.

The research also includes studies into human behavior, including the prevalence of sex work among refugees, the impact of nuclear testing on the American Southwest, how to use online cryptocurrency to improve conditions in the world’s largest Syrian refugee camp and defending the rights of migrants to the United States.

Winners of the scholarships include Daine A. Van de Wall, who is a brigade commander at the United States Military Academy, which is the highest-ranking cadet position at West Point.

Other scholars selected this year include students who were homeschooled before their university studies and some who are the first people in their families to go to college.

Arielle Hudson is a second-generation student at the University of Mississippi who remembered visiting campus with her mother, who holds two degrees from the school. She always thought she would go to college out of state until she received a full scholarship through a Mississippi teaching program.

“When I received the scholarship, I started to think about how I would make a difference here,” Hudson told the university in a statement.

Now her work will come full circle. Hudson plans to seek master’s degrees in comparative social policy and comparative international education, then come back to Mississippi’s poor Delta region to teach for five years to fulfill her scholarship requirement.

Rhodes Scholarships were created in 1902 in the will of Cecil Rhodes, a British businessman and Oxford alum who was a prime minister of the Cape Colony in present-day South Africa.

The recipients are chosen not just for academic skill, but for their leadership and a willingness to do good for the world.

Previous Rhodes Scholars include U.S. President Bill Clinton, astronomer Edwin Hubble, singer-songwriter Kris Kristofferson and author Naomi Wolf. Among 2020 Democrats running for president, Cory Booker and Pete Buttigieg both studied at Oxford under the scholarship program.

 

Official White House Christmas Tree to Arrive Monday

The U.S. first family is gearing up for the holidays. First lady Melania Trump will receive the official White House Christmas tree Monday.

The more than 5-meter-tall Douglas Fir was cut at Mahantongo Valley Farms in Pitman, Pennsylvania. Owner Larry Snyder won the honor of providing the White House with its official tree after winning an annual contest held by the National Christmas Tree Association.

“I feel extremely lucky to be the person who is providing the tree to the White House,” said Snyder, who has been growing Christmas trees for more than 30 years. “It’s the home of the president. I feel very honored to have this opportunity to present this tree for display.”

The 16-year-old tree will arrive at the White House in a horse-drawn carriage. It will be the focal point of the White House decorations and will be displayed in the Blue Room.  

 

42 Charged After Protest Delays Harvard-Yale Football Game

Officials say 42 people were charged with disorderly conduct after a protest interrupted a Saturday football game between archrivals Harvard and Yale.

Students from both schools occupied the midfield of the Yale Bowl during Saturday’s halftime protest. Some held banners urging their colleges to act on climate change. Other signs referred to Puerto Rican debt relief and China’s treatment of Uighurs.

Most protesters walked off after about an hour; those who remained were charged with misdemeanor disorderly conduct.

They were issued a court summons and released, according to a statement from Yale University.

Organizers of the protest had initially estimated that 20 to 30 protesters were arrested.

Rachel Sadoff, a junior at Harvard, said about 150 students from the two universities had planned to participate and about 100 more who were sitting in the stands joined in. She said organizers considered the protest a success.

“Our goal was to spread the word,” Sadoff said. “If more people speak up, our colleges will have to listen.”

Yale officials said in a statement handed to reporters in the press box during the fourth quarter that the school “stands firmly for the right to free expression.”

“It is regrettable,” a statement attributed to the Ivy League said, “that the orchestrated protest came during a time when fellow students were participating in a collegiate career-defining contest and an annual tradition when thousands gather from around the world to enjoy and celebrate the storied traditions of both football programs and universities.”

After the game resumed, Yale went on to beat Harvard 50-43, clinching the Ivy League championship.

Saturday’s matchup was the 136th edition of the football rivalry between the two schools.

 

Johnson to Promise ‘Christmas Present’ Brexit Push

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will promise to bring his Brexit deal back to parliament before Christmas when he launches his manifesto Sunday, the cornerstone of his pitch to voters to “get Brexit done.”

Voters face a stark choice at the country’s Dec. 12 election: opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn’s socialist vision, including widespread nationalization and free public services, or Johnson’s drive to deliver Brexit within months and build a “dynamic market economy.”

Opinion polls show Johnson’s Conservative Party commands a sizeable lead over the Labour Party, although large numbers of undecided voters means the outcome is not certain.

“My early Christmas present to the nation will be to bring the Brexit bill back before the festive break, and get parliament working for the people,” Johnson will say, according to excerpts of his speech that he will make at an event in the West Midlands region of England.

Contrasting with Labour

Contrasting with Labour’s unabashed tax-and-spend approach, Johnson’s manifesto, titled “Get Brexit Done, Unleash Britain’s Potential,” will pledge to freeze income tax, value-added sales tax and social security payments.

Johnson will also announce a 3 billion pounds ($3.85 billion) National Skills Fund to retrain workers and an extra 2 billion pounds to fill pot-holes in roads. He will also pledge to maintain the regulatory cap on energy bills.

Labour spokesman Andrew Gwynne said Johnson’s plans were “pathetic.”

“This is a no hope manifesto, from a party that has nothing to offer the country, after spending 10 years cutting our public services,” Gwynne said.

Think tanks like the Institute for Fiscal Studies have raised questions about the credibility of plans to fund investment from both the Conservatives and Labour.

Tired of voting

Held after three years of negotiations to leave the European Union, the December election for the first time will show how far Brexit has torn traditional political allegiances apart and will test an electorate increasingly tired of voting.

Amid a heated campaign in which the Conservatives have been criticized for disseminating misleading social media posts, Johnson, 55, will say he will “turn the page from the dither, delay and division” of recent years.

Labour has said it will negotiate a better Brexit deal with the EU within six months that it will put to the people in a new referendum — one which will also offer the choice of remaining in the bloc.

Corbyn has said he would remain neutral in such a vote.

“We now know the country can be carbon (neutral) by 2050 and Corbyn neutral by 2020, as the leader of the opposition has decided to duck the biggest issue facing our country today,” Johnson will say.

At Nagasaki Ground Zero, Pope Calls for Abolishing Nuclear Weapons

Pope Francis, speaking in one of only two cities hit by atomic bombs in history, appealed Sunday for the abolition of nuclear weapons, saying their mere possession was perverse and indefensible.

He restated his support for a 2017 treaty to ban nuclear weapons agreed by nearly two-thirds of U.N. members, but opposed by big nuclear powers who say it could undermine nuclear deterrence, which they credit with averting conventional war.

“The possession of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction is not the answer (to longings for peace),” Francis said, after having closed his eyes in prayer and lighting a candle in memory of the victims.

“Our world is marked by a perverse dichotomy that tries to defend and ensure stability and peace through a false sense of security sustained by a mentality of fear and mistrust,” he said in a somber voice, amid driving rain and strong wind.

Pope Francis greets wellwishers at the Atomic Bomb Hypocenter Park in Nagasaki, Japan, November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Remo Casilli
Pope Francis greets wellwishers at the Atomic Bomb Hypocenter Park in Nagasaki, Japan, Nov. 24, 2019.

“Peace and international stability are incompatible with attempts to build upon the fear of mutual destruction or the threat of total annihilation,” he said.

Francis, who was speaking at Nagasaki’s Atomic Bomb Hypocenter Park, ground zero of the bomb the United States dropped Aug. 9, 1945, instantly killing 27,000 people, also decried what he called a dismantling of non-proliferation pacts.

Nagasaki was the second city hit by an atomic bomb during World War II. Later Sunday, the pope was to visit Hiroshima, site of the first blast, which instantly killed about 78,000 people.

About 400,000 more eventually died of radiation illness and injuries caused by the bombs dropped by the United States in an effort to end the war.

“Here, in this city, which witnessed the catastrophic humanitarian and environmental consequences of a nuclear attack, our attempts to speak out against the arms race will never be enough,” Francis said in his emotional appeal.

Better uses for ‘arms race’ money

Resources spent on the “arms race” should be used for development and protection of the environment, instead.

“In a world where millions of children and families live in inhumane conditions, the money squandered and the fortunes made through the manufacture, upgrading, maintenance and sale of ever more destructive weapons, are an affront crying out to heaven,” he said.

Last August, the United States pulled out of one landmark strategic arms accord, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), citing violations by Russia that Moscow denies.

Nuclear experts said it also appeared doubtful that agreement on a full-fledged replacement for the New START nuclear arms control treaty between Russia and the United States will be in place before it expires in February 2021.

Pope Francis places a wreath during his visit to the Martyrs' Monument at Nishizaka Hill, in Nagasaki, Japan, November 24, 2019…
Pope Francis places a wreath during his visit to the Martyrs’ Monument at Nishizaka Hill, in Nagasaki, Japan, Nov. 24, 2019.

Collective memory

The bombing is seared in the collective memory of the people of the green and hilly harbor city of Nagasaki and has been passed on through the generations.

“We can’t have any more atomic bombings. It’d be great if that message would get across to the world. I’d like it if nuclear weapons were eliminated and there wasn’t any more war,” said Chizuko Hisamatsu, 66, a housewife. “I think I may cry.”

The pope delivered his appeal standing near a large print of a famous photograph taken by an American soldier shortly after the blast, showing a Japanese boy taking his dead younger brother to be cremated.

Monument to faithful

After his address, Francis spoke at a monument to faithful martyred during the 250 years in which Christianity was banned in Japan, forcing believers to go underground or face death.

“Hidden Christians” blended Christianity with Buddhism and native Shinto beliefs to survive, and Francis may meet several members of the aging, dwindling population later.

Jesuits brought Christianity to Japan in 1549, but it was banned in 1614. Missionaries were expelled and the faithful were forced to choose between martyrdom or hiding their religion. The ban was lifted in 1873.

Iran Focusing on Minorities Following Protests, Experts Say

Days of widespread anti-government protests and violence in Iran have renewed debate over the status of minorities in the country, with some experts warning that Iranian authorities are blaming minority groups for the unrest in a bid to justify further clamping down on them.

The nationwide protests in Iran erupted late last week because of frustration over an abrupt increase in gas prices by the government.

Watchdog group Amnesty International reported Tuesday that at least 100 protesters had been killed by security forces and more than 1,000 people had been arrested.

The Iranian government has claimed victory over the protests, with some officials calling it an enemy plot led by the United States with the help of opposition groups belonging to minority groups, such as the Kurds in the northwest and Ahwazi Arabs in the southwest.

Kamran Matin, a Britain-based Iran researcher and scholar at Sussex University, told VOA that Iranian officials are publicly accusing elements among the Kurdish opposition with working as agents for the U.S. and Israel. The campaign, he said, is an effort to mobilize Iranian nationalists and those loyal to the regime.

“In the current conjuncture, it is likely that Iranian regime unleashes its most brutal suppression against the Kurdish people as a means to intimidate the rest of Iran into acquiescence,” Matin said, adding the government previously has continued to blame the minority in an effort to delegitimize popular movements.

On Friday, state-run media outlets reported thousands of pro-government demonstrators were on the streets of major Iranian cities, including Tehran, Shiraz, Isfahan, Karaj, Kerman and Zahedan. The pro-government demonstrators, the state media said, chanted slogans against “the rioters and enemies who masterminded the unrest.”

Tehran’s interim Friday Prayers leader, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, told the demonstrators that “subversive elements” backed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia were to blame for the unrest.

In this Monday, Sept. 5, 2016 photo made from video, militiamen of the Kurdistan Freedom Party, an Iranian Kurdish opposition…
FILE – Militiamen of the Kurdistan Freedom Party, an Iranian Kurdish opposition group, the frontline near Kirkuk, Iraq, Sept. 5, 2016. The armed Kurdish group in Iran says it received military weapons and training as part of the war against Islamic State.

Government deflection

According to London-based counter-insurgency analyst Raman Ghavami, by portraying the protesters as foreign agents, Iranian authorities are trying to create a narrative to deflect the nation’s attention away from more pressing issues related to bad economic management and the spread of poverty.

“According to Amnesty’s report, more than half of the casualties have been reported in Kurdish regions. This demonstrates the regime’s fear of the Kurds and their potential of leading the protests,” Ghavami told VOA.

He said the officials in Tehran are concerned that Kurdish opposition militants, who operate on the Iran-Iraq border, could be emboldened by the protests to increase their presence in the predominately Kurdish regions.

“Regardless of the current situation in Iran, Tehran knows the Kurds would not stop [striving for] their goals of achieving their political, social, cultural and financial rights. Therefore, Iran sees the Kurdish regions as a greater threat to its existence. In essence, as we have seen in the past 40 years, the treatment of the Kurds by the Tehran has only gone worse,” Ghavami added.

WATCH: A Look at Iranian Protests Nationwide


A Look at Iranian Protests Nationwide video player.
Embed

Millions of minorities

With a population of more than 80 million, Iran is predominately ethnic Persian, and the state’s religion is Shiite Islam. The country is home to millions of ethno-religious minorities, such as Kurds, Ahwazi Arabs, Azeris and Baluchis.

Babak Taghvaei, a Malta-based Iran analyst, charged that in addition to the Kurds, the Iranian officials also are placing blame on elements of Ahwazi Arabs in the resource-rich southwest province of Khuzestan. Iranian officials in the past have accused Saudi Arabia and Sunni extremist groups like the Islamic State of attempting to establish a footprint in the region.

He said the government often tries to depict the region as a hotbed for terrorism in state media, where “Ahvazi youth appear on TV and are introduced as agents of a notorious armed extremist organization being trained, funded and ordered by enemies of Iran to foment unrest.”

Female activists targeted

According to Shahed Alavi, a Washington-based reporter and expert who closely follows developments in Iran, the government’s campaign to end protests this month also targeted female activists who have been leading female movements in the conservative state.

“It seems that the authorities are adding women to the new list of ‘enemies of state’ by naming them as subversive elements and mentioning the role of female leaders in recent uprising,” said Alavi, who reported that dozens of female activists have been arrested by authorities in recent days.

Iranian state media Thursday and Friday aired a report profiling female activists who were leading the protesters.

The reports follow another televised program earlier this week showing a Kurdish woman identified as Fatemeh Davand allegedly “confessing” to being hired by banned Kurdish opposition groups to lead protesters into violence.

“The propaganda reports on national TV seems to be preparing the ground for authorities to justify their future harsh actions against women-ensued activities,” Alavi added.

Analysts See Pitfalls for Ukraine in Coming Peace Talks

Ukrainian officials are warily watching the U.S. impeachment inquiry as they prepare for a crucial four-way negotiation with Russia, France and Germany next month.

The meeting of the so-called Normandy Contact Group, set for Dec. 9 in Paris, is aimed at easing the conflict in the Donbas area of eastern Ukraine between government forces and Russian-backed separatists. More than 13,000 people have died in the fighting, which began in April 2014.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has outlined four issues he wants to raise at the meeting — an exchange of prisoners, a ceasefire, a restoration of Ukraine’s control over the Ukraine-Russia border, and holding local elections in rebel-held territories. Ukraine and the separatists have already withdrawn their forces at three sites in Donbas as a precondition for the meeting.

Analysts contacted by Voice of America’s Ukrainian Service say the novice leader who came to power promising to bring peace to his country will be hard-pressed to emerge with a deal that doesn’t leave the nation weaker than it is now.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump face reporters during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City, New York, U.S., September 25, 2019. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
FILE – Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump face reporters during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Sept. 25, 2019.

Trump ‘doesn’t care’ about Ukraine

The impeachment probe undermines Ukraine’s position because it exposes Trump’s lack of commitment to defending Ukraine, said Mark Simakovsky, a senior fellow with the Washington-based Atlantic Council. U.S. diplomat Gordon Sondland has been quoted in testimony to the inquiry saying that Trump “doesn’t care” about Ukraine.

“I think the casualty of this relationship between Trump and Zelenskiy will be that there’ll always be questions about how far the United States and this president are willing to go to support Ukraine,” Simakovsky said.

The analyst noted that several U.S. officials with leading roles on Ukraine policy have provided testimony that is embarrassing to the administration and are no doubt being “looked at skeptically” by the president. That will make it hard for them to “have the confidence of the White House” as they seek to implement U.S. policy.

David Kramer, a former high-ranking State Department official in the George W. Bush administration, said the Republican-led defense of the president in the impeachment probe has hurt Ukraine even further.

Ranking member Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., left, confers with Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, left, and Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio,…
Ranking member Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., left, confers with Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, left, and Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, during a break in the testimony before the House Intelligence Committee, Nov. 13, 2019, during its impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump.

“The Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee continue to peddle disproven conspiracy theories that paint a very negative picture of Ukraine,” he said.

Kramer added that Kyiv will “be under greater pressure from France and Germany to resolve the conflict” in eastern Ukraine, and that the recent resignation of U.S. special envoy Kurt Volker has made the United States less effective in the region.

“So, should [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskiy try to make the best of a bad situation with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin or hold out until all Russian forces leave Ukrainian territory? Cutting deals with Putin is likely to be a riskier proposition,” he said.

Simakovsky agreed that France and Germany appear to be looking for an excuse to ease sanctions on Russia.

“The challenge I think is Ukrainian people being convinced and frustrated with the lack of support from the West. If they are going to be left alone, then they need to accelerate the path toward peace because they have to make some sort of [accommodation] with Russia,” Simakovsly said.

Members of the Emergencies Ministry of the separatist Donetsk People's Republic demine the area near the settlement of Petrovskoye (Petrivske) in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Nov. 19, 2019.
Members of the Emergencies Ministry of the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic remove mines from the area near the settlement of Petrovskoye (Petrivske) in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Nov. 19, 2019.

A win for Russia

Nataliya Bugayova, a Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War, said Russia is taking advantage of the West’s eagerness to see the war ended.

“Russia is exploiting the narrative of both urgency to deliver on peace internally in Ukraine and in Europe,” she said. “Russia is also attempting to use the upcoming Normandy talks to cast itself as a mediator in the conflict where it is a belligerent.”

Russia has made no meaningful concessions leading to the summit, Bugayova added.

“There is no indication of Russia’s intent to give up control of its forces in Ukraine. In fact, we have seen Russia’s efforts to further integrate its proxies over the past few months,” she said.

Michael Carpenter, managing director at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement and a former high-ranking Pentagon official in the Obama administration, said there is a risk that the Paris meeting will allow Russia to transfer some responsibility for the conflict to its separatist proxies.

The details of any agreement reached in Paris on elections and a special status for the disputed regions will have to be worked out by a Trilateral Contact Group, which is comprised of Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Representatives of the self-proclaimed Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics will also be involved.

Carpenter said Russia has similarly manipulated an international forum on Georgia, allowing it to “normalize” its relations with that country without making any meaningful progress on the status of the disputed territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

“If the same thing happens in Ukraine, it will set the stage for an unwinnable negotiation with Russia’s proxies that lasts years or even decades,” he said.

Elections a sticking point

The proposal for local elections in eastern Ukraine will be a major sticking point in the Paris talks. Zelenskiy has said elections will be held only after Ukraine regains control over the disputed territory and its border with Russia.

There is little chance that Moscow will agree to that, but Bugayova said Zelenskiy cannot afford to give in on the point.

“If elections take place under Russia’s influence, whether it’s direct military pressure or the absolute information control that Russia has over the territories, that means that the proxies and somewhat intervention will be legitimized,” she said.

“The biggest risk … is that if Russian proxies are legitimized, there is no going back. This is a non-reversible process that can open opportunities for Russia to regain control over Ukraine’s decision-making in the long term.”

Kramer is also dubious about possibility of holding successful elections in the east.

“How can one conduct an election when more than 1.5 million have been displaced, when Ukraine doesn’t control the territory, and when Russian forces continue to occupy the territory?” he asked.

A former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Steven Pifer, said he is skeptical that the Paris talks will produce any settlement that leads to a restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty.

“For more than five years, the Kremlin has used a simmering conflict in Donbas to put pressure on Kyiv. The big question is whether Mr. Putin is ready now to change course and seek a mutually acceptable settlement of the conflict that Russia has inflicted on Ukraine.”
 

Ginsburg Hospitalized for Treatment of Chills, Fever 

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg was hospitalized after experiencing chills and fever, the court said Saturday. 

In a statement, the court’s public information office said Ginsburg was admitted Friday night to Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore. She was initially evaluated at Sibley Memorial Hospital in Washington before being transferred to Johns Hopkins for further evaluation and treatment of any possible infection. 

With intravenous antibiotics and fluids, her symptoms abated and she expected to be released from the hospital as early as Sunday morning, the statement said. 

Earlier this month Ginsburg, 86, suffered what the court described as a stomach bug. She was absent from arguments on November 13 but returned for the court’s next public meeting, on November 18. 

She has been treated for cancer twice in the past year and two other times since 1999. Over the summer she received radiation for a tumor on her pancreas. Last winter she underwent surgery for lung cancer.