U.S. President Donald Trump will not be coming to Moscow for Victory Day celebrations on May 9, the Kremlin said Tuesday.

Russia has repeatedly invited Trump to visit Moscow on the 75th anniversary of victory in World War II — the nation’s most important holiday. Trump said last year he appreciated the invitation, but wasn’t sure if he could go as the celebration falls “right in the middle of political season.”

 “Via diplomatic channels, we have received information that the [U.S.] president will not be coming,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Tuesday, adding that it remains unclear who will represent the U.S. on the Victory Day in Moscow.

Peskov didn’t give a reason for Trump’s refusal to come.

In an interview with the state-run Tass news agency, a part of which was released Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said it would be “a mistake” for world leaders not to attend the Victory Day celebrations this year.

“I think that, concerning former members of the anti-Hitler alliance, the right thing to do would be to attend [our event], from both a domestic political stance and a moral one,” Putin said. “We look forward to seeing them and we will be glad if they come. If not, well, that’s their choice. But I think that would be a mistake for them.”

…

A barber in Beijing is supporting his wife and child by charging food and other expenses to a credit card while he waits for his employer’s shop to reopen. A waiter at a barbecue restaurant in Kansas City, Missouri, washes his hands more often and hopes for the best. A parcel delivery driver in Britain worries about getting sick from the people who sign for their packages.
    
While white collar workers trying to avoid contagion can work from home or call in sick if they experience symptoms of the virus, that’s not an option for the millions of waiters, delivery workers, cashiers, ride-hailing drivers, museum attendants and countless others who routinely come into contact with the public.
    
Their dilemma is often compounded by spotty sick leave policies or inadequate health insurance coverage, leaving them vulnerable to the fast-spreading coronavirus that has already claimed thousands of lives and put them in a financially precarious position.
    
“The recommendations on what people should be doing to protect themselves really gives a sharp indication of the divide between white collar and blue collar workers,” said Shannon Liss-Reardon, a workers rights attorney in Boston. “Our social safety net is just not equipped at this moment to deal with a crisis like this, and it will disproportionately affect the most vulnerable low wage workers.”
    
For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia.
    
The vast majority of people recover. According to the World Health Organization, people with mild illness recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe illness may take three to six weeks to recover. In mainland China, where the outbreak emerged in December, almost three-fourths of more than 80,000 patients have recovered.
    
While tech companies like Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft have implemented work-from-home policies, only 29% of U.S. workers have that option, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That means retail workers like Mendy Hughes must fend for themselves. The Walmart cashier in Malvern, Arkansas, serves hundreds of people a day and her big worry is what will happen to her income if she catches the virus or comes in contact with someone who’s had it and must self-quarantine for 14 days.
    
“If I can’t go to work, I could try to take a leave but it will be unpaid,” said Hughes, who earns $11.60 an hour. “I don’t know what I would be doing about taking care of my family.”
    
Hughes, a diabetic and mother of four, gets 48 hours of sick leave a year but she fears it wouldn’t be nearly enough time to recover.
    
In the United States, about 27% of private sector workers don’t have access to paid sick leave, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some countries, like Britain, are looking into helping out non-permanent workers. There is no federal sick leave policy in the U.S., but 12 of the 50 states and Washington D.C. require employers to offer paid sick leave.
    
Some House and Senate Democrats have been pushing legislation that would require employers to allow workers to accrue seven days of paid sick leave and to provide an additional 14 days in the event of any public health emergency, including the current coronavirus crisis. President Donald Trump said he was seeking help for hourly-wage workers to ensure they’re “not going to miss a paycheck,” and he would outline the proposals Tuesday.
    
In Britain, parcel delivery driver Ed Cross worries about catching the virus from the machine he hands people who sign for their packages.
    
“People have coughed on their hand and then got hold of my machine and you sort of make a joke of it trying to point it out,” Cross, 53, said. “But yeah, it’s what we face daily.”
    
“We only have to go to the wrong house and we could catch it, as simple as that,” said Cross, who on a recent day handed packages to 110 people on his route in Whitby, northern England.
    
The British government last week made it easier to collect statutory sick pay and is working on changes to help millions of non-permanent workers like Cross who aren’t eligible for it. In a sign the industry is waking up to the problem, his parcel company, Hermes, announced a 1 million pound ($1.3 million) fund to help couriers who need to self-isolate.
    
Uber, meanwhile, said it would compensate drivers and couriers for up to 14 days if they get sick or have to be quarantined.
    
The viral outbreak has revealed gaping holes in health care coverage at a time when people may need it most. Most European countries and Canada have universal healthcare systems, but the U.S. relies on a patchwork of public and private insurance. About 69% of private industry workers in the U.S. have access  to healthcare benefits, but that drops to 43% of service workers. U.S. employers with 50 or more employees are required to offer health insurance. But the same protection isn’t provided to part-time workers or independent contractors.
    
Waiter Joey Ingham, who works at a barbecue restaurant in Kansas City, Missouri, popular with business travelers, says he doesn’t have insurance. His protection? Washing his hands more often.
    
“If I wasn’t able to come into work, it would be hard to make ends meet,” said Ingham, who waits on 80 to 120 people a shift. If he felt sick, he’d “ probably talk to a manager” about what to do, but noted management hasn’t yet outlined any policies.
    
Liss-Reardon said most gig workers – independent or temporary contractors – she represents don’t have health insurance.
    
“We won’t have a fully insured population until we get universal healthcare,” he said. “There are going to be these huge gaps. The burden is falling on the poorest and most vulnerable in our society. This is just another example.”
    
The American Academy of Family Physicians recommends workers without insurance contact a local health department or community health center for help. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends emergency room visits only for patients who are very sick.
    
In France, where people have the right not to work and get full pay when they consider their workplaces to be dangerous, some service staff briefly stayed home because of contagion concerns. Workers at the Louvre, the world’s most-visited museum, refused to work for two days and were only coaxed back after management introduced a raft of new anti-virus measures.
    
“We are asking for gloves. We are asking for disinfectant gels, and masks for the drivers,’”said Bastien Berthier, of the Paris metro’s UNSA union.
    
In China, where the outbreak has been raging for two months, many service industry workers have it far worse, with business evaporating as people are forced to hunker down at home.
    
A barber in Beijing who would give only his surname, Long, said he is supporting his wife and child by charging food and other expenses to a credit card while he waits for his employer to reopen.
   
 “I can ask for sick leave or compassionate leave, but I get nothing without working,” said Long, 33.
    
Jiang Yanlin, a tour guide in eastern China’s Huangshan region, said she hasn’t earned anything since mid-January and doesn’t have any social welfare benefits to fall back on. Usually she can earn up 300 yuan ($42) a day during the normally busy Lunar New Year holiday.
    
“If I don’t work, I don’t get paid. Everyone here in the Huangshan tourist zone is like this,” said Jiang, 33. “No one is coming to travel. Everyone is so scared.”

…

Egypt is reporting its first death from the coronavirus, or COVID-19 — a German tourist who came down with the infection during a visit to Luxor. Increasing numbers of casualties from the virus in Iran also have the government there scrambling, while some Gulf states have closed schools and stopped flights to neighboring countries. 

Egypt is testing tourists for the coronavirus (COVID-19) at Cairo Airport, after a number of foreign visitors came down with the disease and a German man died after visiting Luxor.

The government has also closed schools and some universities to prevent the outbreak from worsening.  

Egyptian Health Minister Hala Zayed told journalists that those suspected of having the virus are being isolated and monitored by health professionals.

She said that Egypt is isolating suspected cases and treating them for fever and other symptoms with antibiotics.

Zayed said there have only been 11 serious instances of the virus, so far, out of at least 55 reported cases.  

Iran, the most seriously hit Middle Eastern country with hundreds of reported cases, is spraying workers with chemical disinfectant in the hard-hit province of Gilar. At least 200 people have died from the virus in Iran, and photos of dozens of victims being prepared for burial are posted on social media. Many doctors and nurses have also contracted the virus, complicating treatment in many places.

Residents of the Iranian town of Mahmoud Abad were shown on social media stopping drivers with cars registered in other towns from entering. One video posted on social media showed officials in the town of Hormuz telling residents to remain in their homes.

In Saudi Arabia, a health ministry official told journalists that the country now has more than 15 confirmed coronavirus cases, of which at least 11 came from outside the country, including one American. He added that several thousand people have been tested for the virus, so far.

The United Arab Emirates, which like Egypt has closed schools, is reporting at least 59 cases of the virus. Kuwait, which has suspended flights to many neighboring countries, reports more than 65 cases, while Qatar reported at least 15 and Oman at least 12.

Djamel Fourar, the Algerian health ministry director general of prevention, has indicated that around 400 suspected carriers of the virus have been tested. Only 11 confirmed cases have been reported, so far.

Amateur videos on social media showed Iraqi health professionals handing out face masks free of charge in Baghdad and doctors in Anbar province urging area residents to wear a mask to prevent the disease from spreading further. More than 60 people have reportedly been infected with the virus in Iraq and at least six have died.

Lebanon, which has at least 28 confirmed cases, has closed schools, nightclubs, restaurants and some sports facilities to prevent the virus from spreading further. Amateur video showed pilgrims flocking to the tomb of a local saint for its possible healing powers.

…

Greece has shut down schools, theaters and large public gatherings in three major regions of the country in the latest sweep of measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Cases have climbed dramatically in the country after health officials detected the virus among travelers returning from the Middle East. The measures have now pit health authorities against the powerful Greek Orthodox Church.

Health officials have suspended all mass gatherings at theaters, cinemas, museums and sports events in the Peloponnese regions of Achaia and Ileia as well as the island of Zakynthos.

Coronavirus cases in Greece tripled in recent days when travelers who had returned from a pilgrimage to Israel and Egypt were detected with the virus. Among them, a 65-year-old man battling pneumonia in a hospital isolation unit in the western port city of Patras.

A number of people were listed in serious condition.

Authorities are preparing for numbers to soar, potentially affecting up to 15 percent of Greece’s population of 15 million.

That means more than 5,000 intensive care units might be needed, raising concerns because only a fraction of them are operating – a result of a brutal eight-year financial crisis that drastically reduced hospital staff and resources.

George Patoulis, the regional governor of Attica, the biggest and most densely populated region of Greece, is calling for urgent measures.

Patoulis says he wants the government to hire extra medical staff and to stock up on masks, soap, antiseptic solutions and gloves at hospitals. He is also urging authorities to open up at least 100 more intensive care units in and around the capital of Athens.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis chaired a crisis meeting on Sunday to chart a strategy that would help contain the spread of the virus from Greece’s western-hit region to other parts of the country.

He also reached out to the head of the Greek Orthodox Church, which has refused to shut down churches and says priests will not stop distributing holy communion.

On a major religious holiday on Sunday, thousands of followers like this pensioner remained undeterred.

Of course we are continuing to take holy communion, she says, because we have faith in God and everything is in His hands.

The Greek president, who holds a mostly ceremonial role, was among those attending Mass, flanked by several senior ministers.

With Orthodox Easter approaching in April, church attendance is high, mainly among older followers.

But concerns over the virus’ fallout in neighboring Italy has some people expecting the senior council of bishops in Greece to take extraordinary measures soon. The bishops have called an emergency meeting this week.

…

Venezuelan officials are vowing not to let a fire that destroyed thousands of voting machines deter their quest to hold legislative elections this year that could help President Nicolas Maduro consolidate his power.
    
Tibisay Lucena, president of the government-stacked National Electoral Council, said the fire that tore through a warehouse Saturday, obliterating 49,323 voting machines and nearly 50,000 fingerprint readers, would not prevent a planned vote to replace lawmakers in the last opposition-controlled federal institution.
    
“If there are groups who think that they’re going to stop electoral processes, constitutionally established, they are very wrong,” she said Sunday.
    
Maduro has been vowing to quickly convoke legislative elections for several months, threatening to hold them earlier than usual. The election is constitutionally scheduled to take place in 2020, though it usually is held at the end of the year. Opposition leaders have not yet stated whether they will participate.
    
The opposition has boycotted other recent elections, refusing to participate in an election run by the current electoral body, which is dominated by pro-Maduro officials. Authorities have barred a number of high-profile opposition leaders from running and are accused of manipulating the vote in which Maduro’ was reelected in 2018.
    
Opposition leaders have expressed concern about running in a legislative vote without a reformed National Electoral Council that would allow what they consider a free and fair election, though analysts also warn that if they do not participate, Maduro allies could assume control of the opposition’s only remaining national platform in the government.
    
Key opposition members did not respond to news of the fire, instead pushing forward in calling for a planned march on Tuesday.
    
Lucena said two prosecutors have been assigned to investigate the fire, which took place at a warehouse in the state of Miranda, not far from the capital.
    
“The CNE wants to know the truth: What was the origin of the fire and how did it spread so rapidly?” she said in a state broadcast. “No hypothesis is being discarded.”
    
First responders were able to rescue only 562 voting machines and 724 fingerprint readers.
   
 “Very little could be recovered,” Lucena said. “It was a great effort, but the fire was greater.”

…

With stock prices plunging amid an oil price war and the coronavirus crisis, U.S. President Donald Trump is to meet Monday afternoon with his economic advisors, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who will present him with policy options to counter the quickly emerging threats to the economy.   

White House sources say the options will include paid sick leave and emergency help for small businesses.

The meeting is set to be convened after Trump returns from Florida, where he attended a fundraising luncheon at the home of a wealthy donor.

Wall Street executives are scheduled to be at the White House on Wednesday to discuss the market situation and its impact on the U.S. economy, VOA News has learned.

As the Dow Jones Industrial Average dived more than 2,000 points during Monday morning trading, Trump, via Twitter, blamed the market drop on Saudi Arabia and Russia arguing over the price and flow of oil.

“That, and the Fake News, is the reason for the market drop,” he wrote.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are arguing over the price and flow of oil. That, and the Fake News, is the reason for the market drop!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2020

Trump said the big decline for oil prices will be good for the consumer as gasoline will cost less.

Trump also downplayed Americans’ fears about the novel coronavirus.

The president said the number of deaths in the United States from the new disease is a tiny fraction compared to the tens of thousands who succumb annually to seasonal influenza.

“Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on,” tweeted Trump.

So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2020

The number of confirmed U.S. cases of coronavirus, which originated in China, is 566, including 22 deaths, according to state public health authorities and the Johns Hopkins University.

Left unsaid in Trump’s messaging was that people can be immunized against the flu strains while there is no vaccine yet to protect against COVID-19 which health experts predict will have a higher mortality rate than influenza.

“The markets have obviously been very active today,” said Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar of the historic sell-off on Wall Street.

“President Trump has delivered a historically strong economy” and the economic fundamentals remain strong, stated Azar, a member of the White House’s coronavirus task force. “The public health and protecting the American people is the No. 1 priority for all of us,” added Azar.

Briefly speaking on the White House North Lawn driveway, the Cabinet official declined to answer any questions from a group of reporters who had been waiting while he conducted interviews on Fox News and Fox Business channels, friendly media outlets for the Trump administration.

Vice President Mike Pence and others on the task force are scheduled to speak to reporters at a briefing later in the day.

The White House is denying reports that it has issued formal guidelines to staff instructing them to limit in-person interactions and meetings.

“While we have asked all Americans to exercise common-sense hygiene measures, we are conducting business as usual. I want to remind the media once again to be responsible with all reporting,” White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said in a statement.

…

At least 69 Ugandan students are effectively trapped in Wuhan, China — the epicenter of the coronavirus epidemic. In Uganda, parents of the students are pleading with authorities to bring them home, but Ugandan officials say they have no plans to do so.

Three of Margaret Ntale’s four children are studying in Wuhan, China, and have been quarantined there since the coronavirus outbreak began in December.

“One of my daughters, the young one, Vivian, fell ill, and it scared me so much. And it was a sore throat to the extent that she could not even talk. I was so scared until the point when they told me she didn’t have the virus,” said Ntale.

Ntale calls her children every day to ask if they are safe and healthy — free of the virus known as COVID-19.

“Do they spray every day? Spraying the virus. Am not sure, I think so, but am not sure, because I never look outside. But I hear those trucks making noise, so, I think they do spray.”

But she wishes they were back home in Uganda.

“We pleaded with our government to help us evacuate our children, and up to now, they refused. And they gave us the reason that they are safer there,” said Ntale.

Health Minister Dr. Ruth Aceng confirmed the students will stay in Wuhan for the time being.  

“I am not aware of the Chinese government requesting us to evacuate,” said Aceng. “To the contrary, I have a letter from the ambassador reassuring us of how well they are taking care of our Ugandan students.”

Aceng also discouraged people from countries where the coronavirus is spreading from coming to Uganda, warning they face a two-week, self-imposed quarantine.

“People residing in the following seven countries — Italy, Iran, South Korea, France, China, Germany and Spain — should consider postponing nonessential travel to Uganda,” said Aceng.

Since the outbreak, Ugandan authorities have identified about 1,300 passengers arriving from affected countries as high risk.

These travelers,  such as traders from Kampala’s business hub, Kikuubo, pose a threat to public health, says aviation public health specialist, Dr. James Eyul.

“Ugandans coming from China, you know, our Kikuubo traders for example, you know they don’t want to remain at home. They are a little bit stubborn because they think they are at home. And if we have one who is still in the incubation period, that will be the threat,” said Eyul.

The best way to prevent the spread of COVID-19, doctors say, is for everyone in affected countries to stay put, limit physical contact, and wait for the virus to stop spreading.

But for mothers like Ntale, the waiting is the hardest part.

…

Asian shares were set for a pounding on Monday as investors fled to bonds to hedge the economic shock of the coronavirus, and oil plunged more than 20% after Saudi Arabia slashed its official selling price.

The world’s top oil exporter plans to raise its production significantly after the collapse of OPEC’s supply cut agreement with Russia, a grab for market share reminiscent of a drive in 2014 that caused prices to slump around two thirds.

Brent crude futures sank $9.51 to $35.76 a barrel in chaotic trade, while U.S. crude shed $8.81 to $32.47.

Saudi Arabia to Hike Oil Output above 10 MLN BPD in April after OPEC+ Deal Collapse

Saudi Arabia plans to raise its crude oil production significantly above 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, after the collapse of the OPEC supply cut agreement with Russia, two sources tells Reuters

The safe-haven yen surged against emerging market currencies with exposure to oil, including the Russian rouble and Mexican peso, as analysts saw danger ahead.

“Today’s price action puts at risk the fiscal health of the vast majority of sovereign producers and budget cuts and increased debt loads are now looming in the event of a prolonged period of low prices,” warned Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

“For the most politically and economically fragile producer states, the reckoning could be severe.”

There were also worries that U.S. oil producers that had issued a lot of debt would be made uneconomic by the price drop.

Energy stocks were certain to the be slammed, with E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 already down 4.1%. Nikkei futures dived 4.4% and were trading 1,200 points below the cash close on Friday.

Futures for the U.S. 10-year Treasury note jumped more than a full point, pointing to record lows for yields.

The number of people infected with coronavirus topped 107,000 across the world as the outbreak reached more countries and caused more economic damage.

Italy’s markets could come under intense pressure after the government ordered a lockdown of large parts of the north of the country, including the financial capital Milan.

“After a week when the stockpiling of bonds, credit protection and toilet paper became a thing, let’s hope we start to see some more clarity on the reaction,” said Martin Whetton, head of bond & rates strategy at CBA.

“Dollar bloc central banks cut policy rates by 125 basis points, not as a way to stop a viral pandemic, but to stem a fear pandemic,” he added, while noting many had little scope to ease further.

BOND BUBBLE

Markets are fully priced for another half-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its scheduled policy meeting on March 18, following last week’s emergency easing, and a move toward zero in coming months.

“The onus is falling, perhaps inevitably on the actions of governments to abandon budget surpluses and reinvigorate the demand side of the economy,” said Whetton.

Urgent action was clearly needed with data suggesting the global economy slid into recession this quarter. Figures out from China over the weekend showed exports fell 17.2% in January-February, from a year earlier.

Analysts at BofA Global Research estimated the latest sell-off had seen $9 trillion in global equity value vaporized in nine days, while the average 10-year yield in the developed world hit 16 basis points, the lowest in 120 years.

“The clearest outcome of the exogenous COVID-19 shock is a collapse in bond yields, which once panic fades can induce huge rotation to ‘growth stocks’ and ‘bond proxies’ in equities,” they wrote in a client note.

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries plunged to a once-unthinkable 0.71%, having halved in just eight sessions. Yields on the 30-year long bond dived 35 basis points on Friday, the largest daily drop since the 1987 crash.

The tumble in yields and Fed rate expectations has pulled the rug out from under the dollar, sending it crashing to the largest weekly loss in four years.

The dollar extended the slide in early Asia to reach 103.55 yen, depths not seen since late 2016, while the euro shot to the highest in over eight months at $1.1387.

Gold climbed 1.3% to $1,695.70 per ounce to reach a fresh seven-year peak.

…

A recent cease-fire deal brokered by Russia and Turkey in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib seems to be largely holding.

No airstrikes and clashes between Russian-backed government forces and Turkish-backed rebel fighters have been reported since the truce went into effect on Friday, local news said.

The cease-fire came after Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached an agreement last week in Moscow to bring an end to a Syrian government offensive that had begun last year to recapture Idlib province, the last major rebel stronghold in the war-torn country.

As part of the agreement between the two leaders, Russian and Turkish forces will begin joint patrols on a key highway in Idlib.“

The next phase of the Russian-Turkish deal would be conducting joint patrols on the M4 highway,” said Rami Abdulrahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitoring group.“

The third phase would be the establishment for a safe zone under Turkish protection in Idlib,” he told VOA.

While the cease-fire agreement would largely halt the fighting in Idlib, Abdulrahman said, it could also allow Syrian government forces to keep territorial gains made during the recent offensive.  

Previous deals

Some experts doubt that this deal would be different from previous agreements struck between Ankara and Moscow over Idlib, which had not been successful.“

This deal is fragile and shaky, and it doesn’t establish for permanent stability in the region,” said Abdulrahman, a former Syrian military general who is now a military analyst based in Britain.“

It is not clear whether this is a new protocol or merely an extension to previous deals reached between Russia and Turkey,” he told VOA.

In September 2018, Russia and Turkey reached an agreement that had postponed a planned Syrian regime offensive on Idlib and other areas near the Turkish border.

According to the agreement, Turkey was required to remove all extremist groups from the province, some of which are allied with the al-Qaida terror group.

But the deal proved unsuccessful as Ankara reportedly failed to implement its part of the deal, prompting Russian-backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces to restart their military activities in Idlib.

As the humanitarian situation worsened in Idlib, which before the government offensive was home to nearly 3 million people, several other cease-fire agreements were reached but none were successful either.

The government offensive has led to hundreds s of thousands of civilians leaving the province to other parts of the country and to neighboring countries to escape violence.

Various extremist groups

Nicholas Heras, a Middle East expert at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, says the most important component of the new deal struck between Turkey and Russia is that Ankara is now formally responsible for reducing the power of al-Qaida-linked groups in Idlib, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Russian president “Putin has now formally put the task of confronting the powerful HTS onto Turkey as a condition for Russian maintenance of the cessation of hostilities in Idlib,” he told VOA, adding that Turkish president “Erdogan has moved significant Turkish military assets into Idlib, including tanks, artillery, and mechanized infantry units, that could be used to support a Turkish-backed Syrian rebel pressure campaign on HTS in Idlib.”

Heras, however, noted that Turkey’s willingness to challenge al-Qaida-linked groups in Idlib remains an open question.“

This is likely to be the biggest variable that will determine the scope and pace of a future Russian-backed Assad regime campaign on what is a shrinking Syrian rebel-held zone of control in Idlib,” he said.

In addition to HTS, the largest Islamist group in Idlib – which previously was al-Qaida’s branch in Syria – there are other extremist factions that are active in the northwestern province.

Huras al-Din and the Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria are two other extremist groups that have maintained a significant presence in parts of Idlib.

Western intelligence agencies believe that thousands of foreign fighters affiliated with different radical groups are active in Idlib.

Humanitarian crisis

Rights groups say that over one million civilians have been displaced due to the recent Russian-backed Syrian offensive on Idlib.

According to the U.N. humanitarian affairs coordination office, more than half a million children are among those displaced.

U.N. officials say the recent fighting has aggravated a dire situation in northwest Syria, where 2.8 out of 4 million people were already estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance.

Analysts and residents in Idlib expressed fears that the latest cease-fire would not be entirely meaningful as long as the ongoing humanitarian crisis is not addressed.“

The cease-fire deal talks about the return of refugees to Idlib, but under what circumstances? People refuse to go back to any area under the control of Syrian regime forces,” analyst Rahal said.“

What makes people uneasy about the cease-fire is that Russia continues to say that Assad forces must reassert their full control over the entire country,” he added.

Mahmoud Najjar, a 32-year-old Idlib resident who now lives in a displacement camp, says even if the cease-fire holds for a long time he would not consider returning to his home.“

Previous experiences have taught us not to trust the Syrian regime and its Russian ally,” he told VOA.

…

Some of Virginia’s scores of Confederate monuments could soon be removed under legislation state lawmakers approved Sunday.

The Democratic-led House and Senate passed measures that would undo an existing state law that protects the monuments and instead lets local governments decide their fate. The bill’s passage marks the latest turn in Virginia’s long-running debate over how its history should be told in public spaces.

The legislation now heads to Gov. Ralph Northam, who has said he supports giving localities — several of which have already declared their intent to remove statues — control over the issue.

After white supremacists descended on Charlottesville in 2017, in part to protest the city’s attempt to move a statue of Gen. Robert E. Lee, many places across the country quickly started taking Confederate monuments down. But Virginia localities that wanted to remove monuments were hamstrung by the existing law.

In the two legislative sessions that followed the rally, Republican lawmakers defeated bills like the one that passed Sunday. But Democrats recently took full control of the statehouse for the first time in a generation.

One of the bill’s sponsors, Del. Delores McQuinn of Richmond, said she feels great about letting local leaders decide what’s right for their community. But she said she thought many places would opt to keep the monuments.

“I think more of them are going to be interested in contextualizing, you know, making sure that there is a sense of truth told and shared with the public,” she said.

As for Charlottesville, city spokesman Brian Wheeler said staff would review the new legislation and determine the steps needed to carry out previous City Council votes to remove the Lee statue and another of Stonewall Jackson from its public parks.

Virginia, a state that prides itself on its pivotal role in America’s early history, is home to more than 220 public memorials to the Confederacy, according to state officials. Among those are some of the nation’s most prominent — a collection of five monuments along Richmond’s Monument Avenue, a National Historic Landmark.

Critics say the monuments are offensive to African Americans because they romanticize the Confederacy and ignore its defense of slavery.

“My family has lived with the trauma of slavery for generations. … I hope that you understand that this is a situation that’s so much deeper than a simple vote on simple war memorials,” Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, who presides over the Senate, said earlier in the week.

Others say removing the monuments is tantamount to erasing history.

Republican Amanda Chase said during the same Senate debate that slavery was evil.

“But it doesn’t mean that we take all of these monuments down,” she continued. “We remember our past, and we learn from it.”

The House and Senate initially passed different legislation, with disagreements about what hurdles a locality must clear before taking down a statue. A conference committee hashed out the differences.

The compromise measure says a locality must hold a public hearing before voting to remove or otherwise alter a monument. If it decides to remove one, it must be offered to “any museum, historical society, government or military battlefield,” although the governing body ultimately gets the say on the “final disposition.”

The measure, which passed largely but not entirely along party lines, wouldn’t apply cemeteries or the Virginia Military Institute in Lexington, which has a prominent statue of Jackson.

Northam, who last year was embroiled in a scandal over a racist photo that appeared in his medical school yearbook, announced at the start of the legislative session what he called a historic justice agenda aimed at telling the accurate and complete story of Virginia’s past.

In addition to the monuments bill, lawmakers also have advanced bills removing old racist laws that were technically still on the books, substituting the state’s holiday honoring Lee and Jackson for one on Election Day and creating a commission to recommend a replacement for a Lee statue Virginia contributed to the U.S. Capitol. They have also passed legislation that provides protections and funding for historic African American cemeteries.

Another bill introduced this year took aim at a controversial statue on Capitol Square, one of Harry F. Byrd Sr., a former Virginia governor and U.S. senator who’s considered the architect of the state’s “massive resistance” policy to public school integration.

Republican Del. Wendell Walker introduced the bill that would have removed the bronze figure with the aim of needling Democrats on the larger monuments issue, saying “what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.” Byrd, a Democrat, led a political machine that dominated Virginia politics for decades.

But when met with some agreement from across the aisle on removing the statue, Walker asked that the bill be killed.

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Irish eyes at the U.S. Capitol will not smile on President Donald Trump on St. Patrick’s Day.

Trump is skipping an annual bipartisan luncheon with House and Senate lawmakers celebrating the ties that bind the U.S. and Ireland, a White House spokesman said.

Trump blamed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

“Since the speaker has chosen to tear this nation apart with her actions and her rhetoric, the president will not participate in moments where she so often chooses to drive discord and disunity,” spokesman Judd Deere said in an emailed statement.

The House speaker traditionally hosts the luncheon.

Trump instead will celebrate with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar at the White House on Thursday — five days before St. Patrick’s Day.

Drew Hammill, a spokesman for Pelosi, said congressional support for the U.S.-Ireland relationship has never been stronger.

“One would think that the White House could set petty, partisan politics aside for this historic occasion,” Hammill said in an email.

Trump attended the luncheon in 2017 and 2018 when Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., was speaker, and in 2019, after Pelosi, D-Calif, won back the gavel.

Trump remains incensed at Pelosi for leading the Democratic-controlled House in December to impeach him after he asked Ukraine’s leader to investigate Democratic presidential rival Joe Biden while delaying delivery of military aid Congress had approved to help the country defend against Russian aggression. The Senate’s Republican majority voted in February to acquit Trump.

Speaker Thomas P. “Tip” O’Neill, D-Mass., hosted the first St. Patrick’s Day lunch in 1983. President Ronald Reagan and other House and Senate lawmakers attended the gathering, which had been arranged to ease tension between the two Irish-American leaders, according to the House.

The lunch became an annual event on Capitol Hill in 1987, missed by presidents just four times since then. Bill Clinton sent regrets after having knee surgery two days before St. Patrick’s Day in 1997. George W. Bush passed on the 2003 lunch, held days before the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

Last year, Pelosi said the lunch is “a tradition where we dispense with our differences, whether they’re political or whether they’re competitive in any other way.”

Politico first reported Trump’s decision.

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More than 15 million people were placed under forced quarantine in northern Italy early Sunday as the government approved drastic measures in an attempt to halt the spread of the deadly coronavirus that is sweeping the globe.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said via Twitter he had signed off on plans to strictly limit movement in and out of large areas including Venice and the financial capital Milan for nearly a month.

“#Coronavirus, the new decree is finally approved,” Conte wrote, confirming earlier reports of the lockdown in the newspaper Corriere Della Sera and other media.

With more than 230 fatalities, Italy has recorded the most deaths from the COVID-19 disease of any country outside China, where the outbreak began in December.

Second-oldest population

Italy has the world’s second oldest population after Japan, according to the World Bank, and older people appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill from the new coronavirus.

Without a serious reason that cannot be postponed, such as urgent work or family issues, people will not be allowed to enter or leave the quarantine zones, Corriere Della Sera reported.

These include the entire Lombardy region as well as Venice and its surrounding areas, and the cities of Parma and Rimini — affecting a quarter of Italy’s population of 60 million.

Museums, nightclubs, gyms and casinos will be closed in these places, with people advised to stay at home as much as possible, the newspaper said, adding that the restrictions would be in place until April 3.

People will be allowed to return home from outside these regions, while bars and restaurants are allowed to remain open provided it is possible for customers to stay a meter (three feet) away from one another.

Following China

The measures echo those taken in China’s central Hubei province, whose nearly 60 million residents have been under lockdown since late January when the government rushed to put a lid on the virus that first emerged in the regional capital, Wuhan.

Worldwide, the total number of people with COVID-19 has passed 100,000 while 3,500 have died across 95 nations and territories.

The disease has convulsed markets and paralyzed global supply chains, and Italy has found itself at the forefront of the global fight against the virus, with more than 5,800 infections recorded in the past seven weeks in all 22 Italian regions.

The virus has now spread to all 22 Italian regions and the first deaths are being recorded in Italy’s less well medically equipped south.

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