President Donald Trump urged Americans Friday to get vaccinated against measles, amid an outbreak of the highly contagious virus in the U.S. that has forced two U.S. universities to quarantine hundreds of students, faculty members and other employees.

Trump told reporters at the White House citizens “must get their shots” to protect themselves against the virus that was deemed eradicated in the U.S. nearly 20 years ago.

There were nearly 700 cases in 22 states, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported Wednesday, the highest level in 25 years. The CDC partially attributed the surge to misinformation about the safety of the measles vaccine.

The beginning of the outbreak has been traced to Orthodox Jews who contracted the disease while traveling overseas. The cases have been concentrated in a small number of states, including New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Washington.

Cases also have been confirmed in California, where public health officials ordered dozens of people to be quarantined Tuesday at the University of California at Los Angeles and California State University, Los Angeles following an exposure to the virus earlier this month. Los Angeles County public health officials said some people may have to be quarantined up to one week until proof of immunity is established.

The CDC recommends vaccinations for everyone over a year old, except those who contracted measles as children and have since become immune.

The vaccine, which first became available in the 1960s, is considered safe and effective by most public health experts.

 
…

From: MeNeedIt

The world lost 12 million hectares (30 million acres) of tropical tree cover last year, the equivalent of 30 soccer pitches a minute, researchers said Thursday, warning the planet’s health was at stake.

It was the fourth highest annual decline since records began in 2001, according to new data from Global Forest Watch, which uses satellite imagery and remote sensing to monitor tree cover losses from Brazil to Ghana.

“The world’s forests are now in the emergency room,” said Frances Seymour, senior fellow at the U.S.-based World Resources Institute (WRI), which led the research. “It’s death by a thousand cuts — the health of the planet is at stake and Band-Aid responses are not enough.”

Seymour said the data represented “heartbreaking losses in real places,” with indigenous communities most vulnerable to losing their homes and livelihoods through deforestation.

Climate implications

The loss of huge swathes of forest around the world also has major implications for climate change as they absorb a third of the planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions produced globally.

“Forests are our greatest defense against climate change and biodiversity loss, but deforestation is getting worse,” said John Sauven, executive director of Greenpeace UK. “Bold action is needed to tackle this global crisis including restoring lost forests. But unless we stop them being destroyed in the first place, we’re just chasing our tail.”

The study found much of the loss occurred in primary rainforest — mature trees that absorb more carbon and are harder to replace.

The rate of destruction in 2018 was lower than in the two previous years. It peaked in 2016 when about 17 million hectares of tropical forest were lost partly because of rampant forest fires, according to the WRI.

The study highlighted new deforestation hotspots, particularly in Africa, where illegal mining, small-scale forest clearing and the expansion of cocoa farms led to an increase in tree loss in countries such as Ghana and the Ivory Coast.

Bright spot: Indonesia

Indonesia was a rare bright spot, with primary forest loss slowing for two years running, after the government imposed a moratorium on forest-clearing.

Indonesia has the world’s third largest total area of tropical forest and is also the biggest producer of palm oil. Environmentalists blame much of the forest destruction on land clearance for oil-palm plantations.

“We hope that this is a sign that our policies so far are having an effect,” said Belinda Margono, a director at the Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry.

Last year, leading philanthropists pledged a $459 million commitment to rescue shrinking tropical forests that suck heat-trapping carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at a Global Climate Action Summit in California.

But experts said more needed to be done.

“Deforestation causes more climate pollution than all the world’s cars, trucks, ships and planes combined,” said Glenn Hurowitz, chief executive of Mighty Earth, a global environmental campaign organization. “It’s vital that we protect the forests that we still have.”
…

From: MeNeedIt

The world lost 12 million hectares (30 million acres) of tropical tree cover last year, the equivalent of 30 soccer pitches a minute, researchers said Thursday, warning the planet’s health was at stake.

It was the fourth highest annual decline since records began in 2001, according to new data from Global Forest Watch, which uses satellite imagery and remote sensing to monitor tree cover losses from Brazil to Ghana.

“The world’s forests are now in the emergency room,” said Frances Seymour, senior fellow at the U.S.-based World Resources Institute (WRI), which led the research. “It’s death by a thousand cuts — the health of the planet is at stake and Band-Aid responses are not enough.”

Seymour said the data represented “heartbreaking losses in real places,” with indigenous communities most vulnerable to losing their homes and livelihoods through deforestation.

Climate implications

The loss of huge swathes of forest around the world also has major implications for climate change as they absorb a third of the planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions produced globally.

“Forests are our greatest defense against climate change and biodiversity loss, but deforestation is getting worse,” said John Sauven, executive director of Greenpeace UK. “Bold action is needed to tackle this global crisis including restoring lost forests. But unless we stop them being destroyed in the first place, we’re just chasing our tail.”

The study found much of the loss occurred in primary rainforest — mature trees that absorb more carbon and are harder to replace.

The rate of destruction in 2018 was lower than in the two previous years. It peaked in 2016 when about 17 million hectares of tropical forest were lost partly because of rampant forest fires, according to the WRI.

The study highlighted new deforestation hotspots, particularly in Africa, where illegal mining, small-scale forest clearing and the expansion of cocoa farms led to an increase in tree loss in countries such as Ghana and the Ivory Coast.

Bright spot: Indonesia

Indonesia was a rare bright spot, with primary forest loss slowing for two years running, after the government imposed a moratorium on forest-clearing.

Indonesia has the world’s third largest total area of tropical forest and is also the biggest producer of palm oil. Environmentalists blame much of the forest destruction on land clearance for oil-palm plantations.

“We hope that this is a sign that our policies so far are having an effect,” said Belinda Margono, a director at the Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry.

Last year, leading philanthropists pledged a $459 million commitment to rescue shrinking tropical forests that suck heat-trapping carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at a Global Climate Action Summit in California.

But experts said more needed to be done.

“Deforestation causes more climate pollution than all the world’s cars, trucks, ships and planes combined,” said Glenn Hurowitz, chief executive of Mighty Earth, a global environmental campaign organization. “It’s vital that we protect the forests that we still have.”
…

From: MeNeedIt

As the World Health Organization marks World Malaria Day, April 25, Malawi has launched the pilot phase of Africa’s first ever malaria vaccine.

The WHO chose Malawi, alongside Ghana and Kenya, because of the high numbers of malaria cases and treatment facilities. The pilot phase aims to vaccinate 360,000 children per year, 120,000 of them in Malawi. But, while the vaccine is expected to save thousands of lives, its effectiveness is limited.

Health officials at Malawi’s Likuni Community Hospital are giving children injections of Africa’s first malaria vaccine.

The mosquito-spread disease kills more than 430,000 people per year, most of them African children.

WATCH: Malawi Rolls Out Africa’s First Malaria Vaccine for Children

It took more than 30 years and nearly $1 billion to develop a vaccine against malaria.

Known as RTS-S, the vaccine is only helpful for children younger than 2 who receive four doses, at the ages of 5 months, 6 months, 7 months and 22 months.

Michael Kayange is Malawi’s deputy director of health.

“After we did clinical trials, we had several age groups that we looked at. This vaccine was seen to be very, very effective in children aged between 5 months and 22 months. In other age groups it didn’t show any usefulness,” he said.

A long line of mothers brought their children to Tuesday’s launch of the pilot phase of the World Health Organization-approved vaccine.

Malawi’s mothers like Fanny Kaphamtengo are excited about the vaccine’s potential.

She says malaria is a deadly and killer disease for not only children but adults as well. Although she has other children who are not vaccinated, Kaphamtengo says she feels lucky to have her new baby protected from malaria.

Fewer cases, less anemia

Testing between 2009 and 2014 showed the vaccine reduces clinical malaria cases by 40 percent and severe malaria cases by 30 percent. But it also caused a 60 percent reduction in severe malaria anemia, the most common reason children die from malaria.

Kayange says Malawians will still need to take precautions to avoid their children getting ill from malaria.

“This new vaccine is just an additional tool to the control and elimination of malaria in the country,” he said. “So, whoever will get this vaccine, all the children who get the vaccine, we encourage them to use other malaria prevention methods like sleeping under mosquito nets, going to hospital quickly when they have fevers and body aches.”

Millions could be saved

Despite its only partial protection from malaria, the vaccine could save millions of lives in Malawi, Kayange said.

The pilot project will be launched in Ghana and Kenya next week.

The WHO will use the results to inform policy advice before the vaccine is rolled-out in other malaria-hit countries.
…

From: MeNeedIt

As the World Health Organization marks World Malaria Day, April 25, Malawi has launched the pilot phase of Africa’s first ever malaria vaccine.

The WHO chose Malawi, alongside Ghana and Kenya, because of the high numbers of malaria cases and treatment facilities. The pilot phase aims to vaccinate 360,000 children per year, 120,000 of them in Malawi. But, while the vaccine is expected to save thousands of lives, its effectiveness is limited.

Health officials at Malawi’s Likuni Community Hospital are giving children injections of Africa’s first malaria vaccine.

The mosquito-spread disease kills more than 430,000 people per year, most of them African children.

WATCH: Malawi Rolls Out Africa’s First Malaria Vaccine for Children

It took more than 30 years and nearly $1 billion to develop a vaccine against malaria.

Known as RTS-S, the vaccine is only helpful for children younger than 2 who receive four doses, at the ages of 5 months, 6 months, 7 months and 22 months.

Michael Kayange is Malawi’s deputy director of health.

“After we did clinical trials, we had several age groups that we looked at. This vaccine was seen to be very, very effective in children aged between 5 months and 22 months. In other age groups it didn’t show any usefulness,” he said.

A long line of mothers brought their children to Tuesday’s launch of the pilot phase of the World Health Organization-approved vaccine.

Malawi’s mothers like Fanny Kaphamtengo are excited about the vaccine’s potential.

She says malaria is a deadly and killer disease for not only children but adults as well. Although she has other children who are not vaccinated, Kaphamtengo says she feels lucky to have her new baby protected from malaria.

Fewer cases, less anemia

Testing between 2009 and 2014 showed the vaccine reduces clinical malaria cases by 40 percent and severe malaria cases by 30 percent. But it also caused a 60 percent reduction in severe malaria anemia, the most common reason children die from malaria.

Kayange says Malawians will still need to take precautions to avoid their children getting ill from malaria.

“This new vaccine is just an additional tool to the control and elimination of malaria in the country,” he said. “So, whoever will get this vaccine, all the children who get the vaccine, we encourage them to use other malaria prevention methods like sleeping under mosquito nets, going to hospital quickly when they have fevers and body aches.”

Millions could be saved

Despite its only partial protection from malaria, the vaccine could save millions of lives in Malawi, Kayange said.

The pilot project will be launched in Ghana and Kenya next week.

The WHO will use the results to inform policy advice before the vaccine is rolled-out in other malaria-hit countries.
…

From: MeNeedIt

As the World Health Organization marks World Malaria Day, April 25, Malawi has launched the pilot phase of Africa’s first malaria vaccine. The WHO chose Malawi, alongside Ghana and Kenya, because of the high numbers of malaria cases and treatment facilities. The pilot phase aims to vaccinate 360,000 children per year, 120,000 of them in Malawi. But, as Lameck Masina reports from Lilongwe, while the vaccine is expected to save thousands of lives, its effectiveness is limited.
…

From: MeNeedIt

Despondent, Akon Mathiong points to two small mounds of dirt where she buried her grandsons, 4 and 5 years old, last month. They died after contracting measles in one of the worst-hit areas of South Sudan’s latest outbreak.

“Every time I see the graves I feel like crying,” Mathiong said.

The family said the boys had been vaccinated against the highly infectious disease. Similar infections are prompting questions about whether some vaccines have been compromised in a country largely devastated by conflict.

As South Sudan emerges from a five-year civil war, more than 750 measles cases, including seven deaths, have been reported since January. That’s almost six times the number of cases for all of 2018, according to World Health Organization data.

The increase in measles cases is part of a global one, in part because of misinformation that makes some parents balk at receiving a vaccine. WHO noted a 300% increase in reported measles cases worldwide in the first three months of this year compared with the same period last year.

Many in developing countries don’t dispute the vaccine but instead are held back by lack of access. Measles, spread by coughing, sneezing, close contact or infected surfaces, has no specific treatment. Malnourished children and those with weak immune systems can develop severe complications that can lead to death — and malnourishment can reduce how well the vaccine protects them.

Though an emergency vaccination campaign is underway in South Sudan’s 12 affected counties the outbreak is spreading, leading some health officials and residents to doubt the vaccine’s viability in some cases.

“Those kids were vaccinated but they died. It makes me wonder if the vaccine is working,” the boys’ uncle, John Garang Ajak, told The Associated Press during a visit to Kuajok town earlier this month. At least two other vaccinated children in his family contracted measles, he said.

While the AP could not independently verify that the children had been vaccinated, medical workers at Kuajok hospital are seeing some vaccinated children contract measles, said Dr. Garang Nyuol. He has seen more than 10 such cases since January.

To ensure the integrity of the highly effective measles vaccine it must be kept at between 2 degrees Celsius (35 Fahrenheit) and 8 degrees Celsius (46 Fahrenheit). Kuajok hospital, Gogrial state’s main medical facility, administers measles vaccines year-round, yet several staffers said its two generators often shut down for hours, even days, at a time.

“I’m worried about the effectiveness of the vaccine,” Chok Deng, the director general for the state’s ministry of health, told the AP. He said he reached out to the United Nations children’s agency and WHO for help and was told it was being “followed up.”

UNICEF, which provides the majority of vaccines in South Sudan as well as freezers and generators, said the system is designed to be self-sufficient for 16 hours in case of a power failure. The organization conducts regular maintenance and has not “received any messages about generators in Kuajok not running properly,” said Penelope Campbell, chief of health for UNICEF in South Sudan.

Dr. Ujjiga Thomas, WHO’s Kuajok hub coordinator, said that “at no time has the cold chain been compromised when it comes to fuel or spare parts” at the hospital.

During power outages, medical workers at the hospital move the vaccines to small mobile refrigerators, but experts say a constant shift in temperature reduces the vaccines’ strength.

“If we do not respect the storage temperatures, that can compromise the vaccine’s effectiveness,” said Dr. Alhassane Toure, a vaccination expert with WHO.

Maintaining the cold chain is a challenge across South Sudan, especially in remote areas. An internal document in April from the country’s health cluster, comprised of various aid groups, seen by the AP cited a shortage of “qualified cold chain technicians” to address maintenance issues.

A visit to the Kuajok hospital showed the challenges in containing South Sudan’s measles outbreak. Just one nurse is available for 50 patients. The isolation tent is so hot that patients lie on the ground throughout the compound instead, at risk of infecting others.

“It’s concerning, outbreaks are popping up all over the place,” said Natalie Page, health adviser for Medair South Sudan, which recently vaccinated more than 190,000 children in Gogrial state.

Low vaccination rates allow measles to spread quickly, she said. Just 59% of children under 5 in South Sudan have received the measles vaccine, according to the health ministry. Overall immunization rates need to be 90% to 95% or higher to prevent outbreaks. In order for the vaccine to have maximum efficacy, children need to receive two doses.

With the rainy season starting in May, there is concern that reaching remote communities will become more difficult. Meanwhile three to 10 new cases arrive at Kuajok’s hospital daily.

Cradling her weakened 1-year-old, Amel Makir unsuccessfully tried to get him to nurse from her breast. Their village is a three-hour walk from the hospital and has not been reached with vaccinations. Now the boy has measles.

“It’s been six days and he’s not improving,” Makir said. “I’m worried he’ll only get worse.”
…

From: MeNeedIt

Despondent, Akon Mathiong points to two small mounds of dirt where she buried her grandsons, 4 and 5 years old, last month. They died after contracting measles in one of the worst-hit areas of South Sudan’s latest outbreak.

“Every time I see the graves I feel like crying,” Mathiong said.

The family said the boys had been vaccinated against the highly infectious disease. Similar infections are prompting questions about whether some vaccines have been compromised in a country largely devastated by conflict.

As South Sudan emerges from a five-year civil war, more than 750 measles cases, including seven deaths, have been reported since January. That’s almost six times the number of cases for all of 2018, according to World Health Organization data.

The increase in measles cases is part of a global one, in part because of misinformation that makes some parents balk at receiving a vaccine. WHO noted a 300% increase in reported measles cases worldwide in the first three months of this year compared with the same period last year.

Many in developing countries don’t dispute the vaccine but instead are held back by lack of access. Measles, spread by coughing, sneezing, close contact or infected surfaces, has no specific treatment. Malnourished children and those with weak immune systems can develop severe complications that can lead to death — and malnourishment can reduce how well the vaccine protects them.

Though an emergency vaccination campaign is underway in South Sudan’s 12 affected counties the outbreak is spreading, leading some health officials and residents to doubt the vaccine’s viability in some cases.

“Those kids were vaccinated but they died. It makes me wonder if the vaccine is working,” the boys’ uncle, John Garang Ajak, told The Associated Press during a visit to Kuajok town earlier this month. At least two other vaccinated children in his family contracted measles, he said.

While the AP could not independently verify that the children had been vaccinated, medical workers at Kuajok hospital are seeing some vaccinated children contract measles, said Dr. Garang Nyuol. He has seen more than 10 such cases since January.

To ensure the integrity of the highly effective measles vaccine it must be kept at between 2 degrees Celsius (35 Fahrenheit) and 8 degrees Celsius (46 Fahrenheit). Kuajok hospital, Gogrial state’s main medical facility, administers measles vaccines year-round, yet several staffers said its two generators often shut down for hours, even days, at a time.

“I’m worried about the effectiveness of the vaccine,” Chok Deng, the director general for the state’s ministry of health, told the AP. He said he reached out to the United Nations children’s agency and WHO for help and was told it was being “followed up.”

UNICEF, which provides the majority of vaccines in South Sudan as well as freezers and generators, said the system is designed to be self-sufficient for 16 hours in case of a power failure. The organization conducts regular maintenance and has not “received any messages about generators in Kuajok not running properly,” said Penelope Campbell, chief of health for UNICEF in South Sudan.

Dr. Ujjiga Thomas, WHO’s Kuajok hub coordinator, said that “at no time has the cold chain been compromised when it comes to fuel or spare parts” at the hospital.

During power outages, medical workers at the hospital move the vaccines to small mobile refrigerators, but experts say a constant shift in temperature reduces the vaccines’ strength.

“If we do not respect the storage temperatures, that can compromise the vaccine’s effectiveness,” said Dr. Alhassane Toure, a vaccination expert with WHO.

Maintaining the cold chain is a challenge across South Sudan, especially in remote areas. An internal document in April from the country’s health cluster, comprised of various aid groups, seen by the AP cited a shortage of “qualified cold chain technicians” to address maintenance issues.

A visit to the Kuajok hospital showed the challenges in containing South Sudan’s measles outbreak. Just one nurse is available for 50 patients. The isolation tent is so hot that patients lie on the ground throughout the compound instead, at risk of infecting others.

“It’s concerning, outbreaks are popping up all over the place,” said Natalie Page, health adviser for Medair South Sudan, which recently vaccinated more than 190,000 children in Gogrial state.

Low vaccination rates allow measles to spread quickly, she said. Just 59% of children under 5 in South Sudan have received the measles vaccine, according to the health ministry. Overall immunization rates need to be 90% to 95% or higher to prevent outbreaks. In order for the vaccine to have maximum efficacy, children need to receive two doses.

With the rainy season starting in May, there is concern that reaching remote communities will become more difficult. Meanwhile three to 10 new cases arrive at Kuajok’s hospital daily.

Cradling her weakened 1-year-old, Amel Makir unsuccessfully tried to get him to nurse from her breast. Their village is a three-hour walk from the hospital and has not been reached with vaccinations. Now the boy has measles.

“It’s been six days and he’s not improving,” Makir said. “I’m worried he’ll only get worse.”
…

From: MeNeedIt

The White House says two senior economic officials will travel to China next week to continue negotiations aimed at resolving the two economic giants ongoing trade war.

A statement issued Tuesday says Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will meet with Vice Premier Liu He in Beijing on April 30. The two sides will discuss such issues as intellectual property, forced technology transfer, non-tariff barriers and agriculture. 

The White House says Vice Premier Liu will lead a Chinese delegation to Washington for additional talks the following week, on May 8.

Washington and Beijing have been engaged in several rounds of talks since the start of the year to resolve a trade war that began last year when President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports to compel Beijing to change its trading practices. China has retaliated with its own tariff increases on $110 billion of U.S. exports. 

The Trump administration is also pushing China to end its practice of forcing U.S. companies to transfer their technology advances to Chinese firms.

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jingping agreed to a 90-day truce in the trade war during a meeting in Buenos Aires last December 1. The U.S. president had initially imposed a deadline of March 2 for both sides to reach a deal before imposing a hike in tariffs from 10 to 25 percent, but delayed the increase just days before they were to take effect citing “substantial progress” in the negotiations.
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From: MeNeedIt

The White House says two senior economic officials will travel to China next week to continue negotiations aimed at resolving the two economic giants ongoing trade war.

A statement issued Tuesday says Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will meet with Vice Premier Liu He in Beijing on April 30. The two sides will discuss such issues as intellectual property, forced technology transfer, non-tariff barriers and agriculture. 

The White House says Vice Premier Liu will lead a Chinese delegation to Washington for additional talks the following week, on May 8.

Washington and Beijing have been engaged in several rounds of talks since the start of the year to resolve a trade war that began last year when President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports to compel Beijing to change its trading practices. China has retaliated with its own tariff increases on $110 billion of U.S. exports. 

The Trump administration is also pushing China to end its practice of forcing U.S. companies to transfer their technology advances to Chinese firms.

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jingping agreed to a 90-day truce in the trade war during a meeting in Buenos Aires last December 1. The U.S. president had initially imposed a deadline of March 2 for both sides to reach a deal before imposing a hike in tariffs from 10 to 25 percent, but delayed the increase just days before they were to take effect citing “substantial progress” in the negotiations.
…

From: MeNeedIt

In the wake of the Christchurch attack, New Zealand said on Wednesday that it would work with France in an effort to stop social media from being used to promote terrorism and violent extremism.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said in a statement that she will co-chair a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on May 15 that will seek to have world leaders and CEOs of tech companies agree to a pledge, called the Christchurch Call, to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online.

A lone gunman killed 50 people at two mosques in Christchurch on March 15, while livestreaming the massacre on Facebook.

Brenton Tarrant, 28, a suspected white supremacist, has been charged with 50 counts of murder for the mass shooting.

“It’s critical that technology platforms like Facebook are not perverted as a tool for terrorism, and instead become part of a global solution to countering extremism,” Ardern said in the statement.

“This meeting presents an opportunity for an act of unity between governments and the tech companies,” she added.

The meeting will be held alongside the Tech for Humanity meeting of G7 digital ministers, of which France is the chair, and France’s separate Tech for Good summit, both on 15 May, the statement said.

Ardern said at a press conference later on Wednesday that she has spoken with executives from a number of tech firms including Facebook, Twitter, Microsoft, Google and few other companies.

“The response I’ve received has been positive. No tech company, just like no government, would like to see violent extremism and terrorism online,” Ardern said at the media briefing, adding that she had also spoken with Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg directly on the topic.

A Facebook spokesman said the company looks forward to collaborating with government, industry and safety experts on a clear framework of rules.

“We’re evaluating how we can best support this effort and who among top Facebook executives will attend,” the spokesman said in a statement sent by email.

Facebook, the world’s largest social network with 2.7 billion users, has faced criticism since the Christchurch attack that it failed to tackle extremism.

One of the main groups representing Muslims in France has said it was suing Facebook and YouTube, a unit of Alphabet’s Google, accusing them of inciting violence by allowing the streaming of the Christchurch massacre on their platforms.

Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg said last month that the company was looking to place restrictions on who can go live on its platform based on certain criteria.
…

From: MeNeedIt

Oil prices reached a six-month high Tuesday after the Trump administration announced it would no longer exempt countries from U.S. sanctions, if they continue to buy Iranian crude oil, a move aimed at imposing a complete oil embargo on Iran.

Waivers granted to eight countries, including big Iranian crude importers China, India, Japan, Turkey and South Korea, are due to expire on May 2.

RBC Capital Markets, a global investment bank, has told clients it anticipates a loss of 700,000 to 800,000 barrels of oil a day from markets as a consequence of the waivers-withdrawal.

That will tighten oil supplies as seasonal demand picks up in the Northern Hemisphere, forcing importers to seek alternative supplies, a search made more challenging with production falling off in Venezuela and Libya because of domestic unrest and conflict.

U.S. sanctions were snapped back on Iran last year when President Donald Trump withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal, signed by his predecessor Barack Obama, in which Tehran agreed to nuclear curbs in return for sanctions relief.

The European Union has been at loggerheads with Washington over Iran and the nuclear deal, which the Trump administration fears only delays Iran from developing nuclear weapons.  

“Today I am announcing that we will no longer grant any exemptions,” Mike Pompeo, the U.S. secretary of state, said Tuesday.  “We’re going to zero.  We will continue to enforce sanctions and monitor compliance.  Any nation or entity interacting with Iran should do its diligence and err on the side of caution.  The risks are simply not going to be worth the benefits,” he added.

The Trump administration gave waivers last year to avoid a price spike.

Some oil analysts are predicting the price of a barrel could rise to $80 as a result of the withdrawal of the exemptions and say the Trump administration may have to release oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an emergency supply of up to 727 million barrels, if the administration wants to keep prices low.

“There isn’t much doubt about the trigger for the latest rally, with Trump’s decision not to extend waivers on imports of Iranian oil beyond May unsurprisingly providing further upward pressure,” according to Craig Erlam, an oil market analyst at OANDA, a U.S. currency brokerage.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have said they will in principle increase production, but are unlikely to do so before a meeting in June of the 14 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).  Analysts say they will want to wait to see the effect of the withdrawal of exemptions before committing to make up the shortfall on the international market.

Last year, OPEC countries increased production when the Trump administration first announced the return of U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate oil have surged in price more than 30 percent this year because of production disruptions in Venezuela, Nigeria, and Libya.

Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst of Energy Aspects, a research consultancy, says a jump in OPEC cartel production won’t necessarily keep prices in check.  “The problem we have is the quality of the crude.  Iran produces a lot of medium to heavy crudes, whereas the spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE is of lighter crudes.  The quality issue is going to become a very big problem,” she says.

One of the big questions when it comes to oil prices is whether importers decide to comply with the U.S. demand to stop buying Iranian oil.

Sen says China has made very strong statements it is within its legitimate rights to do business with Iran.  “We think Iranian exports will still be about 600,000 to 700,000 barrels per day.  And if prices rise quite substantially and compensates for the drop of 500,000 to 600,000 the revenue shortfall [for Iran] might not be that substantial,” Sen added.

Just hours after the Trump administration’s announcement that it wouldn’t renew waivers, the World Bank issued a report saying it was expecting oil prices to drop this year because of weaker global economic growth. The report, though, was drafted before the announcement and noted “the outlook for oil could be swayed by a range of policy outcomes, including whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partners extend production cuts, the impact of the removal of waivers to the U.S. sanctions on Iran, and looming changes in marine fuel emissions regulations.”

In retaliation for the withdrawal of waivers, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and one of the world’s most strategically important maritime choke-points.  Few analysts believe Iran will follow through on its threat as it would risk a firm U.S. response and undermine Tehran’s efforts to keep Europeans wedded to the 2015 nuclear deal.

More likely is Iran will use “proxy wars” in the region, in Syria and Yemen, to retaliate, they say.

The U.S. withdrew from the nuclear deal in part because, it said, Iran was failing to act  like “a normal country.”  Trump officials laid down a dozen conditions Tehran would have to fulfill for sanctions to be lifted, including an end to all uranium enrichment, stopping its support of Hezbollah, Lebanon’s radical Shi’ite movement, and other militant groups including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

 
…

From: MeNeedIt